Last week, four of our top-six confidence picks won again, giving us a 29-5 record in our top-six overall for confidence purposes across the last six weeks. We also won 5 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections in Week 12. Tonight, Week 14 of the NFL season will begin with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Patriots and Steelers as part of a 15-game slate this week.
The Cardinals and Commanders are on bye this weekend.
Below, we have our Week 14 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 14 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 14 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Carolina Panthers
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Houston Texans
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Detroit Lions
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Cleveland Browns
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Philadelphia Eagles
15. Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 14
49ers (vs. Seahawks)
We just saw this matchup on Thanksgiving, and the result was a 31-13 San Francisco victory in a game that was never particularly competitive. The 49ers outgained the Seahawks 377-220 for the game, had nine more first downs than Seattle, and dominated the time of possessions. is the co-favorite for the league MVP as of this writing, and his team has a clear path to the 1-seed in the NFC playoff picture. Even with a rest advantage in this spot, the Seahawks are thoroughly overmatched. There is no need to overthink things here.
Dolphins (vs. Titans)
Entering play in Week 14, the Dolphins are an unblemished 5-0 at home, and the Titans are a winless 0-6 on the road. Simply, we do not need a barrage of advanced analytics to justify ranking Miami as a high-confidence play this weekend. From 2018 to 2022, home favorites of between 10-14 points went 111-16 straight up, good for an 87.4% win rate. and company should have little trouble taking care of business in this spot.
Packers (vs. Giants)
Some people may see this as an overreaction to the Packers beating the Chiefs in primetime on Sunday Night Football, but the reality is that this matchup is every bit as lopsided as the spread indicates. has been playing at an elite level across the last month of action, which makes the Green Bay offense more than capable of competing with most teams on any given week. Since Week 9, Love ranks 4th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 7th in success rate while ranks 34th out of 35 signal callers in EPA/play and 33rd in success rate. The Packers defense returned both of their starting safeties to the field last weekend, which only further solidifies their position as deserving road favorites in this matchup.
Ravens (vs. Rams)
The Rams are 3-0 since their bye week, but they have not exactly beaten the creme-de-la-creme of the NFL during that stretch. Their wins have come against three deeply flawed teams – the Seahawks, which have struggled mightily defensively, the Cardinals, which have been abysmal on both sides of the ball this season, and the Browns, which started , who was sitting on his couch as a fan of the NFL less than two weeks ago. On the other side of this matchup, the Ravens are fresh off of a bye and will be seeking their seventh win in their last eight games. During that stretch, the Ravens have beaten both the Cardinals and the Seahawks, with a narrow (and fluky) loss to the Browns. Playing at home with a major rest advantage, Baltimore should cruise to a victory.
Panthers (vs. Saints)
If needing to make up points in your confidence pools over the final month of the regular season, the Panthers are a worthwhile risk to take in Week 14. The Saints are 5.5-point home favorites in this spot but not for any particularly good reason. New Orleans is likely to be starting a backup quarterback on Sunday as they hope to put an end to a three game losing streak. Their defense is extremely banged up, with their lack of depth finally being exposed as the season hits its homestretch. The Panthers have every incentive to win football games due to them not owning their own first round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. and company might find a way to pull the upset in the Superdome this weekend.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 6-8
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 7-6
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Image Credit: Getty Images
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